trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 90¢ | $47,142 | $52,182 | +$5,041 (+11%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | No | 89¢ | 96¢ | $40,025 | $43,293 | +$3,268 (+8%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | No | 93¢ | 98¢ | $5,571 | $5,871 | +$300 (+5%) |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 88¢ | $4,000 | $4,116 | +$116 (+3%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | No | 85¢ | 94¢ | $2,648 | $2,921 | +$273 (+10%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? | No | 95¢ | 97¢ | $428 | $438 | +$10 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | Jun 02 | $38,317 | +$1,861 | +5% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | May 13 | $7,458 | +$152 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +4.9% | -5.1% | 100% | 0% | -5.1% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +3.4% | -6.4% | 100% | 0% | -5.5% |
| all | 2 | +3.4% | -6.4% | 100% | 0% | -5.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -6.4% | 0% | -5.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -15.4% | 0% | -14.6% |
| 15% | -23.5% | 0% | -22.8% |
| 20% | -31.0% | 0% | -30.4% |