Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52de…8f92 sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$135 (-3%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$434
7 days−$131
14 days−$326
30 days−$354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$473
other 3% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +18.4% +7.1% 64% 64% -14.7%
≤30d 51 -2.5% -11.8% 49% 49% -16.5%
≤90d 66 -4.6% -13.7% 45% 45% -17.1%
all 66 -4.6% -13.7% 45% 45% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 45% -17.1%
10% -22.0% 45% -25.1%
15% -29.5% 32% -32.3%
20% -36.4% 20% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$40 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 36
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 69
History coverage73d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 27 $378 −$235 -62%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $378 +$143 +38%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $252 −$78 -31%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $503 −$265 -53%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $101 +$34 +34%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $101 +$23 +23%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $101 +$44 +44%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $101 −$52 -52%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$74 +146%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $202 +$126 +62%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $51 −$24 -48%
Scotland to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 −$4 -4%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $100 +$73 +73%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $50 +$17 +34%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $50 +$12 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $50 −$16 -32%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $101 +$43 +43%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $50 −$19 -38%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $51 −$15 -29%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $50 +$17 +34%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $50 +$20 +40%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $50 +$14 +27%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $50 −$15 -30%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $50 +$14 +27%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $50 +$18 +36%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $50 −$14 -27%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $51 +$45 +88%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $51 +$26 +52%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $50 +$20 +40%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $51 +$26 +52%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $50 +$18 +36%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $50 −$12 -25%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $50 −$17 -35%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $50 −$12 -24%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $50 −$14 -29%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $30 −$13 -43%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $50 +$21 +41%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $50 −$34 -68%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $51 +$56 +109%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $30 −$10 -34%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $51 +$28 +55%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $30 −$18 -59%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $51 −$22 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets SELL Philadelphia Phillies 30¢ $143 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 76¢ $378 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 72¢ $378 3h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 50¢ $174 4h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 71¢ $252 5h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Cincinnati Reds 37¢ $239 23h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 77¢ $503 24h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AN BUY 37¢ $51 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3 BUY 21¢ $102 3d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 74¢ $101 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 81¢ $101 3d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 69¢ $101 4d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 38¢ $48 4d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 77¢ $101 4d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 27¢ $51 4d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $156 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 5d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 64¢ $101 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 6d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $26 8d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 8d
Scotland to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 57¢ $97 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 8d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 57¢ $100 10d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 79¢ $101 10d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 74¢ $50 11d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 80¢ $50 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $203 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $26 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records