Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:02:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52dd…1c8f world 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate50%31W / 31L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$4
other 33% −$1
politics 5% +$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% +$11
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +8.8% -1.6% 80% 20% -7.0%
≤30d 23 -2.8% -12.1% 48% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 25 -2.6% -11.9% 44% 4% -9.3%
all 62 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -8.9%
10% -17.8% 3% -17.6%
15% -25.8% 3% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.33 per $1 lost it wins $3.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses31 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage484d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 49¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $79 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $82 +$2 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 +$2 +37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $80 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $96 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $122 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $93 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $65 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 02 $43 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $24 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $63 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $51 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $46 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $183 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $3 −$2 -54%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $276 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $277 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Dec 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +5%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Dec 10 $4 $0 -2%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Dec 10 $19 $0 +1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 27 $14 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $15 $0 +3%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 14 $1 $0 -21%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 14 $16 −$2 -10%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 08 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 07 $16 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting? May 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 05 $5 $0 -3%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 28 $20 $0 -1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 28 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 51m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 51m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $17 51m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 51m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $23 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $35 25h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $8 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $14 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $5 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $6 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $46 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $43 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $44 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $43 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $43 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $42 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $33 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $33 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $47 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $46 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $14 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.00 (match) · 255 history records