Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x52dc…33c9
weather · 1237 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$433 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$443 · open +$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$127
Realized−$443
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses400 / 821
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1221 / 1237
History coverage40d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day50.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 16 History 1221 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$522
7 days−$374
14 days−$291
30 days−$415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $10 $29 +$19 (+189%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Yes 49¢ 49¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Yes 43¢ 54¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Yes 35¢ 70¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+101%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Yes 24¢ 38¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$5 -64%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 +$17 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$9 +431%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$9 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$19 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$15 +465%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$4 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$5 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$17 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$53 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$19 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $7 +$29 +405%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$4 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$4 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$4 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$10 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$11 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$17 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$4 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$4 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$9 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$34 +217%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 97% −$502
sports 2% +$95
other 1% −$24
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 9m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 19m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 25m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 33m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 56m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $15 11h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 15h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 369 -15.0% -23.1% 29% 28% -23.5%
≤30d 1131 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 32% -16.2%
≤90d 1221 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 32% -16.3%
all 1221 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 32% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 32% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 32% -24.3%
15% -26.0% 31% -31.6%
20% -33.2% 29% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.66 · official $126.66 (match) · 2742 history records