Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:35:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x52dc…7138 sports 12 markets active 2d ago coverage 239d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$74 (+16%) realized +$125 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip
Net edge+54%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$149
other 18% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+54.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +1210.3% +1085.5% 100% 100% +1085.5%
≤90d 3 +336.8% +295.2% 33% 33% +306.3%
all 8 +70.3% +54.0% 12% 12% +34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.0% 12% +34.3%
10% +39.3% 12% +21.4%
15% +25.8% 12% +9.7%
20% +13.5% 12% -1.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +349% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$344 vs −$31 · ×11.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$125
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage239d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $45 $33 −$12 (-27%)
Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $53 $29 −$24 (-45%)
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $40 +$344 +861%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $36 −$31 -88%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season Mar 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Utah Jazz make the NBA Playoffs? Mar 03 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 11 $30 −$20 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.87 · official $121.87 (match) · 39 history records