Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

52 0x52da…191a crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$670 (-20%) realized −$882 · open +$212

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%6W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$149per market

Trades / day98.7pace

Fees−$72est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$594now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-1.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+9.4%	-1.1%	29%	29%	-38.7%
≤30d	21	+9.4%	-1.1%	29%	29%	-38.7%
≤90d	21	+9.4%	-1.1%	29%	29%	-38.7%
all	21	+9.4%	-1.1%	29%	29%	-38.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover98.7 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-1.1%	29%	-38.7%
10% ← realistic here	-10.5%	29%	-44.6%
15%	-19.2%	29%	-49.9%
20%	-27.1%	29%	-54.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 60% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +76% → late -51% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$88 vs −$84 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.42 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$594

Realized−$882

Unrealized+$212

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses6 / 15

Est. fees paid−$72

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage2d

Avg bet$149

Trades / day98.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India	India	25¢	39¢	$382	$594	+$212 (+56%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand	Jun 27	$382	−$184	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Jun 27	$2	−$2	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Jun 27	$133	−$133	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Jun 27	$32	−$32	-100%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas	Jun 27	$424	−$32	-8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Jun 27	$53	−$50	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9PM ET	Jun 27	$289	−$275	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Jun 27	$64	−$50	-79%
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings	Jun 27	$290	−$172	-59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8PM ET	Jun 27	$106	−$100	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Jun 27	$32	+$87	+276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Jun 26	$52	+$50	+96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Jun 26	$74	−$70	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Jun 26	$42	−$40	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Jun 26	$21	+$25	+122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Jun 26	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Jun 26	$53	+$169	+320%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Jun 26	$21	+$49	+233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 26	$37	+$150	+403%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Jun 26	$26	−$25	-95%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland	Jun 26	$295	−$37	-13%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India	BUY India	25¢	$383	48m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India	BUY India	31¢	$2	57m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India	BUY India	30¢	$5	57m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India	SELL India	29¢	$295	1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India	SELL India	29¢	$137	1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India	BUY India	26¢	$399	1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand	SELL New Zealand	45¢	$2	20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand	SELL New Zealand	45¢	$4	20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand	SELL New Zealand	45¢	$172	20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand	SELL New Zealand	36¢	$10	20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand	BUY New Zealand	25¢	$86	20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand	BUY New Zealand	25¢	$296	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$1	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$1	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$5	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$5	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	7¢	$5	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$5	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$5	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$5	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$5	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$5	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$5	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$5	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$5	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$5	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$5	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$5	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$5	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$5	35h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.68 · official $593.68 (match) · 188 history records