Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52d9…0a76 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$253 (-9%) realized −$34 · open −$219
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$225
14 days+$225
30 days+$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$184
other 6% −$109
crypto 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +77.5% +60.6% 100% 100% +56.2%
≤30d 2 +77.5% +60.6% 100% 100% +56.2%
≤90d 33 -10.0% -18.5% 36% 36% -12.4%
all 33 -10.0% -18.5% 36% 36% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 36% -12.4%
10% -26.3% 36% -20.8%
15% -33.4% 30% -28.4%
20% -40.0% 30% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$43 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$219
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage55d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 20¢ $200 $80 −$120 (-60%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Natus Vincere 43¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $202 +$125 +62%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $107 +$100 +93%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $107 −$106 -99%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $111 −$4 -4%
Gaziantep FK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 3.5 May 01 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague Divi May 01 $199 −$62 -31%
Aix en Provence: Yibing Wu vs Ethan Quinn May 01 $71 −$17 -24%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Konyaspor: O/U 4.5 May 01 $29 +$47 +164%
PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara vs. FK Spartak Moskva: O/U 3.5 May 01 $20 −$20 -100%
PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara vs. FK Spartak Moskva: O/U 2.5 May 01 $34 +$18 +53%
PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara vs. FK Spartak Moskva: Both Teams to Score May 01 $28 +$6 +23%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 01 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 01 $82 −$7 -9%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Resilience (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch May 01 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" at The Villages on May 1? May 01 $52 −$8 -15%
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Team Refuser (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chi May 01 $152 −$150 -99%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 01 $163 −$6 -4%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Roar Gaming (BO1) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chin May 01 $49 −$48 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 01 $109 +$146 +134%
Jiujiang: Sho Shimabukuro vs Keegan Smith Apr 30 $131 −$130 -99%
Jiujiang: Rio Noguchi vs Coleman Wong Apr 30 $81 +$52 +65%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 30 $50 +$38 +76%
Will FUT win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? Apr 30 $41 −$40 -97%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5 Apr 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $51 +$60 +118%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $201 +$55 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $101 +$160 +159%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? Apr 29 $12 −$11 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Chinggis Warriors (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag Apr 29 $6 +$6 +95%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Apr 29 $91 −$90 -99%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 29 $1 $0 -2%
NBA Playoffs: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Total Games O/U 5.5 Apr 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $328 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $202 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $207 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $107 16h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $107 53d
Pistons vs. Magic SELL Pistons 59¢ $107 53d
Gaziantep FK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $7 53d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 60¢ $111 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague Divi SELL South America Rejects 100¢ $111 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague Divi BUY South America Rejects 90¢ $100 53d
Aix en Provence: Yibing Wu vs Ethan Quinn SELL Yibing Wu 19¢ $53 53d
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 53d
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Konyaspor: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $75 53d
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Konyaspor: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $29 53d
PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara vs. FK Spartak Moskva: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 98¢ $20 53d
PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara vs. FK Spartak Moskva: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $53 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague Divi SELL Nigma Galaxy $26 53d
PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara vs. FK Spartak Moskva: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $34 53d
PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara vs. FK Spartak Moskva: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $35 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague Divi BUY Nigma Galaxy 33¢ $99 53d
Aix en Provence: Yibing Wu vs Ethan Quinn BUY Yibing Wu 24¢ $71 53d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 30¢ $95 53d
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? SELL No 35¢ $74 53d
PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara vs. FK Spartak Moskva: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $28 53d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Resilience (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch BUY Vici Gaming 12¢ $21 53d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" at The Villages on May 1? SELL Yes $44 53d
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Team Refuser (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chi BUY Team Refuser 56¢ $152 53d
Lakers vs. Rockets SELL Lakers 39¢ $157 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.51 · official $100.12 · 57 history records