Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:38:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
52 0x52ca…2453 crypto 297 markets active 3d ago coverage 153d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 152d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized +$15 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate73%203W / 76L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$35
14 days−$19
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 28% +$254
other 24% +$40
politics 19% +$11
sports 18% +$1,224
world 5% +$16
economics 4% −$1
tech 2% −$11
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -12.0% -20.4% 6% 0% -14.0%
≤30d 108 -6.7% -15.6% 56% 0% -14.7%
≤90d 139 -3.0% -12.3% 60% 5% -3.8%
all 279 -0.4% -9.9% 73% 4% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 4% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 2% -13.7%
15% -26.4% 1% -22.1%
20% -33.6% 1% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.56 per $1 lost it wins $8.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$2,451
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses203 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions23
Markets (closed)279 / 297
History coverage153d ⚠
Avg bet$114
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $2,326 $2,331 +$5 (+0%)
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 Yes 75¢ 20¢ $89 $23 −$66 (-74%)
Will Canada be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? Yes 55¢ 30¢ $28 $15 −$12 (-45%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 14¢ 68¢ $1 $7 +$5 (+382%)
Will Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 26¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-65%)
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 85¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 92¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 79¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 89¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 90¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 94¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 87¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 57¢ 92¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+61%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 64¢ 90¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+40%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 28¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-63%)
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 94¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Over $200M raised on Coinbase in 2026? Yes 96¢ 39¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $199 +$2 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $39 −$3 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $13 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Will Harry Kane score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 14 $8 −$2 -29%
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $16 −$6 -38%
Will Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group St Jun 14 $13 $0 -1%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -17%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $17 $0 -3%
Will Julian Alvarez score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6 $0 -5%
Will Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 13 $11 $0 -1%
Will Marcos Llorente be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $30 −$2 -8%
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $9 $0 -4%
Will Morgan Rogers be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $17 −$1 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $30 −$1 -2%
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $15 −$4 -29%
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Harry Kane score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -19%
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $22 $0 -1%
Will Kai Havertz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $17 $0 -2%
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 F Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Rayan Cherki be in France's Starting 11? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $12 $0 -3%
Will Croatia finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $21 −$3 -14%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Alex Freeman be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 12 $11 $0 -3%
Will Uruguay be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group S Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the Worl Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 12 $26 $0 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $9 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $933 +$16 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 84¢ $201 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 83¢ $199 2d
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 14¢ $1 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $5 2d
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $5 2d
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $5 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 92¢ $5 2d
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 90¢ $4 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 89¢ $4 2d
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July BUY No 87¢ $4 2d
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 85¢ $4 2d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $4 2d
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 79¢ $4 2d
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $3 2d
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 BUY No 57¢ $3 2d
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $3 2d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $93 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 64¢ $13 4d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $13 4d
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro SELL No 54¢ $11 4d
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro BUY No 54¢ $11 4d
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro SELL Yes 45¢ $9 4d
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro BUY Yes 45¢ $9 4d
Will Harry Kane score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 25¢ $5 4d
Will Harry Kane score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 25¢ $5 4d
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 95¢ $47 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,450.80 · official $2,450.80 (match) · 3500 history records