Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:55:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
52 0x52ca…1d63 other 396 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$11,629 (+2%) realized +$11,627 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate65%257W / 137L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$1,786per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$250
7 days−$226
14 days−$47
30 days−$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$30,654
sports 32% −$22,591
crypto 7% +$1,549
world 4% +$1,767
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -46.2% -51.3% 40% 27% -13.1%
≤30d 33 -16.5% -24.5% 55% 48% -14.0%
≤90d 62 -25.2% -32.3% 48% 45% -57.4%
all 394 -2.2% -11.5% 65% 49% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 49% -8.1%
10% -20.0% 31% -16.9%
15% -27.7% 22% -24.9%
20% -34.8% 15% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$278 vs −$438 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$11,627
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses257 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)394 / 396
History coverage246d
Avg bet$1,786
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 59¢ 62¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,003 +$29 +3%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 22 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $111 +$66 +60%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $151 −$151 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $501 +$54 +11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,672 +$78 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,500 +$176 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $201 −$201 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$94 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$9 +31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $100 +$17 +17%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $46 +$44 +97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $54 +$24 +45%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$15 +15%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $60 +$34 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$44 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $600 −$122 -20%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $294 −$154 -52%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 29 $302 +$88 +29%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $61 +$35 +57%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $301 +$36 +12%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$39 -77%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 17 $201 +$58 +29%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 14 $340 +$77 +22%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $121 +$66 +54%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $201 +$72 +36%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $202 −$199 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $101 −$16 -16%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $294 +$120 +41%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Apr 25 $300 −$106 -35%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 0 Real Madrid CF? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 0 Real Madrid CF? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 0 Real Madrid CF? Apr 16 $10 −$7 -68%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Real Madrid CF? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 59¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $1,032 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 76¢ $97 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 78¢ $101 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $111 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 57¢ $20 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $501 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 95¢ $1,672 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,676 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,500 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 32¢ $0 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $93 7d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 5¢ $6 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 7d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $101 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $30 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 85¢ $100 8d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $115 8d
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 8d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 68¢ $50 8d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $46 8d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $4 8d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.12 · official $52.12 (match) · 1172 history records