Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:52:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x52c8…2436
crypto · 439 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$30 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses156 / 282
Open positions1
Markets (closed)438 / 439
History coverage101d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 438 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$321
7 days−$321
14 days−$318
30 days−$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -83%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$27
other 1% −$4
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 215 -74.9% -77.3% 11% 7% -65.3%
≤30d 251 -62.0% -65.6% 18% 14% -59.0%
≤90d 346 -19.8% -27.5% 32% 28% -21.5%
all 438 -6.4% -15.3% 36% 30% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 30% -12.5%
10% -23.4% 24% -20.9%
15% -30.8% 21% -28.5%
20% -37.6% 16% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 1302 history records