Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

52 0x52c5…7dfc sports 4 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL −$138 (-11%) realized −$138 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip

Net edge+18%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$319per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$15est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)+22.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+35.4%	+22.5%	25%	25%	-19.8%
≤30d	4	+35.4%	+22.5%	25%	25%	-19.8%
≤90d	4	+35.4%	+22.5%	25%	25%	-19.8%
all	4	+35.4%	+22.5%	25%	25%	-19.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+22.5%	25%	-19.8%
10%	+10.8%	25%	-27.5%
15%	+0.1%	25%	-34.5%
20%	-9.7%	25%	-40.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +35% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$905 vs −$349 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.86 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$138

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$15

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$319

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$205	+$905	+442%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$478	−$466	-98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$441	−$431	-98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$154	−$150	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,110	37h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$243	39h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$204	39h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$1	46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$235	46h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$154	46h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$235	46h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$205	46h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records