Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:50:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x52c5…9c90 other 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate28%18W / 47L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 72% −$14
politics 13% −$6
other 10% +$8
sports 3% +$42
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 14 +2.8% -7.0% 21% 7% -8.7%
≤90d 50 +1.1% -8.5% 26% 18% -9.5%
all 65 +2.7% -7.1% 28% 17% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 17% -9.4%
10% -16.0% 17% -18.0%
15% -24.1% 14% -26.0%
20% -31.5% 14% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses18 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage591d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $87 $87 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $29 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $7 +$9 +140%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 18 $118 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $122 $0 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $8 +$11 +152%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $118 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $113 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $113 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $110 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $114 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $114 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $229 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 25 $111 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $118 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $113 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 23 $114 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $117 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $229 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $118 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $9 +$7 +75%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Apr 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 06 $25 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 06 $45 $0 +0%
Flyers vs. Capitals Apr 06 $28 +$23 +82%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 27 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO3) - EM Mar 25 $22 +$33 +150%
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals Mar 23 $22 +$11 +51%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $24 +$8 +32%
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhorns Mar 19 $27 +$26 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $88 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 2d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 20d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 21d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $25 21d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $25 21d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $15 23d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $15 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 24d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 25d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 25d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 26d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 26d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY Toronto Blue Jays 41¢ $7 27d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $27 27d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $17 28d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $17 28d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $118 29d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $118 29d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cincinnati Reds 39¢ $5 31d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $122 35d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $122 35d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $118 36d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $118 36d
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY San Francisco Giants 39¢ $8 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.41 · official $87.41 (match) · 251 history records