Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52c1…292d world 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-9%) realized −$17 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-55.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -51.0% -55.7% 0% 0% -56.3%
≤30d 2 -51.0% -55.7% 0% 0% -56.3%
≤90d 2 -51.0% -55.7% 0% 0% -56.3%
all 2 -51.0% -55.7% 0% 0% -56.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.7% 0% -56.3%
10% -59.9% 0% -60.5%
15% -63.8% 0% -64.3%
20% -67.4% 0% -67.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$18 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage4d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 25¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $131 −$35 -27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 11 $34 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 55m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 57m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $35 46h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $45 46h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $33 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $34 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $33 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $34 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $35 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $29 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.61 · official $24.61 (match) · 22 history records