Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x52c1…d61f sports 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,362 (+5%) realized +$1,362 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate62%64W / 40L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$220est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$400
14 days+$393
30 days+$1,353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$553
other 7% +$549
crypto 7% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +19.4% +8.0% 75% 69% -0.3%
≤30d 44 +3.4% -6.4% 70% 52% -1.9%
≤90d 104 +0.0% -9.5% 62% 46% -5.6%
all 104 +0.0% -9.5% 62% 46% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 46% -5.6%
10% -18.2% 32% -14.6%
15% -26.1% 22% -22.9%
20% -33.3% 20% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$73 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,362
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses64 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$220
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage68d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $516 +$43 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $153 +$364 +237%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $92 +$59 +64%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $555 −$555 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $372 +$80 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $415 +$65 +16%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $61 +$33 +55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$37 +122%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $414 +$46 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $252 +$88 +35%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $527 +$144 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $371 +$83 +22%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $40 +$37 +91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 07 $11 +$6 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $9 +$2 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $7 +$2 +29%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $424 −$418 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $72 −$72 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $298 +$341 +114%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $486 −$185 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +76%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $317 +$173 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 22 $304 +$12 +4%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $189 +$65 +35%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $253 +$70 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 20 $316 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 20 $328 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 20 $302 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 20 $380 +$4 +1%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $533 +$29 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 19 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 19 $2 +$2 +93%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $386 +$54 +14%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $2,760 +$471 +17%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $2,424 +$150 +6%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $2,173 +$258 +12%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $339 +$222 +66%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $46 −$35 -77%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $9 +$17 +188%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $19 +$10 +54%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $73 −$19 -27%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $117 −$97 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $559 1m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $516 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $517 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $153 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $150 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $92 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $43 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 1¢ $0 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 88¢ $555 10h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 82¢ $372 15h
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $480 26h
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $415 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 29h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $68 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $340 3d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 90¢ $414 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $252 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 78¢ $527 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 88¢ $454 4d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $77 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 71¢ $371 4d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 4d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 7d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 78¢ $9 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 342 history records