Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
52 0x52bf…3e9f sports 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$78 (+18%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$89
sports 26% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 50% -15.5%
≤30d 6 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 50% -15.5%
≤90d 6 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 50% -15.5%
all 6 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 50% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 50% -15.5%
10% -14.9% 33% -23.6%
15% -23.1% 33% -31.0%
20% -30.6% 33% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$40 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $187 −$86 -46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $80 +$17 +21%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $64 +$37 +58%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$38 +132%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$20 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 23m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $31 54m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $68 57m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 51¢ $69 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $119 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $80 9h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $64 27h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $29 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $29 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records