Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
52 0x52be…858a other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$8 (-57%) realized −$9 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +37.1% +24.0% 67% 67% -68.3%
≤30d 3 +37.1% +24.0% 67% 67% -68.3%
≤90d 3 +37.1% +24.0% 67% 67% -68.3%
all 3 +37.1% +24.0% 67% 67% -68.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.0% 67% -68.3%
10% +12.1% 67% -71.4%
15% +1.3% 33% -74.1%
20% -8.6% 33% -76.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +187%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.97 · official $2.97 (match) · 7 history records