Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52bd…a3f7 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$2
other 25% $0
politics 15% −$2
crypto 4% $0
finance 4% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -1.4% -10.8% 31% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 13 -1.4% -10.8% 31% 0% -10.0%
all 33 -3.5% -12.7% 39% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -10.1%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage447d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $32 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $63 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $39 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $38 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $10 −$2 -17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $17 $0 +1%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Dacian Cioloș? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 45% and 47% of the vote in the South Ko Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2? Jun 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%? Jun 01 $17 $0 -2%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Jun 01 $19 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $9 $0 +3%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 04 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $32 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $32 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $31 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $35 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $35 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $4 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $27 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $5 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $27 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.96 · official $30.96 (match) · 110 history records