Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52bb…b303 other 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%24W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$21
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$12
politics 23% −$10
sports 16% −$4
world 9% −$6
crypto 7% −$1
finance 6% −$4
economics 4% −$2
culture 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.6% -10.1% 18% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 63 -0.6% -10.1% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 111 -0.3% -9.8% 19% 0% -9.7%
all 126 -0.3% -9.8% 19% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses24 / 102
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage100d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $227 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $41 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $231 −$2 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $140 −$2 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $65 −$2 -3%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $149 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $304 +$3 +1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $162 −$2 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $66 $0 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $124 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 10 $243 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $89 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $825 −$1 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $51 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $126 −$2 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $146 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $94 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $418 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $67 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 02 $53 $0 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $162 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $54 $0 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $225 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $191 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $54 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $107 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 23m
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $10 50m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $57 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $57 9h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $55 10h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $28 16h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $27 16h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $41 16h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $41 23h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $62 24h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $63 30h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 31h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 37h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $45 37h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 41h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $45 42h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $47 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $37 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $37 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $48 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $49 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $63 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $42 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $23 2d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $55 3d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $55 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $50 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $50 3d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $38 3d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $38 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.11 · official $63.11 (match) · 506 history records