Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
52 0x52b9…3a90 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$133 (+17%) realized +$134 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%20W / 13L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$121
crypto 30% +$54
sports 6% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -6.5% -15.4% 61% 52% +6.9%
≤30d 33 -6.5% -15.4% 61% 52% +6.9%
≤90d 33 -6.5% -15.4% 61% 52% +6.9%
all 33 -6.5% -15.4% 61% 52% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 52% +6.9%
10% -23.5% 52% -3.3%
15% -30.9% 45% -12.7%
20% -37.7% 27% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$134
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage3d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$44 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +50%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $131 +$32 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$52 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $91 +$5 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $81 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $162 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $131 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 38h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $51 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.34 · official $99.34 (match) · 62 history records