Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:49:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x52b9…bdea sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$44 (+0%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%17W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$649per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$33
other 33% +$6
tech 16% +$2
world 4% +$1
crypto 2% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.8%
all 17 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$997) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses17 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage177d
Avg bet$649
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $133 $133 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kang Seung-kyu win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $109 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kyo-heung win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $124 $0 +0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 10 $226 +$7 +3%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 23? Apr 25 $226 $0 +0%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6- Apr 15 $225 +$1 +1%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Apr 01 $225 $0 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $1,004 +$20 +2%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 16 above $7.00? Mar 21 $1,001 +$3 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 9 above $2.50? Mar 14 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Pistons vs. Spurs Mar 06 $998 +$2 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $11 end of February? Feb 28 $997 +$1 +0%
Raptors vs. Bulls Feb 21 $996 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 9 above $30? Feb 14 $995 +$1 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of January? Jan 31 $994 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of January 19 above $40? Jan 24 $992 +$2 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of January 5 above $165? Jan 10 $991 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 02 $990 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $133 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Kang Seung-kyu win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial BUY No 100¢ $109 29d
Will Kim Kyo-heung win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $124 29d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 97¢ $226 47d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $226 65d
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6- BUY No 99¢ $225 78d
Mavericks vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 100¢ $225 86d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 98¢ $1,004 96d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 16 above $7.00? BUY No 100¢ $1,001 101d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 9 above $2.50? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 106d
Pistons vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $998 112d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $11 end of February? BUY No 100¢ $997 120d
Raptors vs. Bulls BUY Raptors 100¢ $996 126d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 9 above $30? BUY Yes 100¢ $995 137d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of January? BUY No 100¢ $994 146d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of January 19 above $40? BUY Yes 100¢ $992 159d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of January 5 above $165? BUY Yes 100¢ $991 167d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $990 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.78 · official $232.78 (match) · 37 history records