trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 58¢ | 57¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 57¢ | 56¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET | Down | 48¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET | Up | 30¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 08 | $4 | +$6 | +150% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET | May 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET | May 25 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET | May 25 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | May 25 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | May 25 | $2 | +$1 | +70% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Apr 26 | $1 | $0 | +32% |
| Will Trump say "Deficit" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Apr 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET | Apr 17 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET | Apr 17 | $1 | $0 | +22% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET | Apr 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET | Apr 17 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET | Apr 16 | $1 | −$1 | -52% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET | Apr 16 | $2 | +$1 | +28% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +25.0% | +13.1% | 50% | 50% | +79.1% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -11.5% | -19.9% | 43% | 29% | +24.3% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -23.1% | -30.4% | 47% | 33% | -6.6% |
| all | 15 | -23.1% | -30.4% | 47% | 33% | -6.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.4% | 33% | -6.6% |
| 10% | -37.1% | 27% | -15.6% |
| 15% | -43.2% | 13% | -23.7% |
| 20% | -48.8% | 13% | -31.2% |