Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:41:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x52b8…d03c
crypto · 17 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$1 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage57d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 2 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 48¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 30¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $4 +$6 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 25 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 25 $1 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 25 $2 +$1 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 26 $1 $0 +32%
Will Trump say "Deficit" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 53% −$6
world 30% +$7
other 13% $0
politics 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 40¢ $4 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 19d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $1 19d
Will Trump say "Deficit" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 57d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 57d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 57d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $0 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +25.0% +13.1% 50% 50% +79.1%
≤30d 7 -11.5% -19.9% 43% 29% +24.3%
≤90d 15 -23.1% -30.4% 47% 33% -6.6%
all 15 -23.1% -30.4% 47% 33% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 33% -6.6%
10% -37.1% 27% -15.6%
15% -43.2% 13% -23.7%
20% -48.8% 13% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.98 · official $1.98 (match) · 33 history records