Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
52 0x52b4…4c5b crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$423 (+68%) realized +$422 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +61% what you keep after slip
Net edge+61%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$328
7 days+$341
14 days+$335
30 days+$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$71
other 12% −$22
sports 3% +$429
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+61.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +90.9% +72.8% 35% 35% +40.5%
≤30d 19 +78.2% +61.2% 37% 37% +37.9%
≤90d 19 +78.2% +61.2% 37% 37% +37.9%
all 19 +78.2% +61.2% 37% 37% +37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.2% 37% +37.9%
10% +45.8% 32% +24.7%
15% +31.7% 32% +12.6%
20% +18.8% 26% +1.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +78% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +188% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$26 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$422
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage13d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$61 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$92 +349%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 27 $106 −$106 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $21 +$429 +2085%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $106 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $450 6h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 7h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 7h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 15h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.04 · official $11.04 (match) · 38 history records