Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
52 0x52b3…7970 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$183 (-19%) realized −$97 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$735now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$12
crypto 11% −$97
sports 8% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$97 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$735
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $647 $662 +$15 (+2%)
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals Yes 8¢ 6¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-19%)
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals Yes 8¢ 5¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-36%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Nigma Galaxy 10¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $103 −$97 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $103 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $128 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 10¢ $76 1h
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $512 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $734.97 · official $734.97 (match) · 8 history records