trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | $37 | $38 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 12 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $33 | −$2 | -6% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 10 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 09 | $35 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 08 | $39 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | Apr 01 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? | Jun 25 | $11 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 22 | $1 | $0 | -15% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 21 | $10 | +$2 | +19% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? | May 22 | $10 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb | May 18 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi | May 10 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres | May 09 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? | May 09 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | May 08 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? | May 07 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? | Apr 01 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 29 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? | Mar 25 | $13 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall | Mar 21 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -1.7% | -11.0% | 12% | 0% | -10.5% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -1.7% | -11.0% | 12% | 0% | -10.5% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -12.6% | -20.9% | 11% | 0% | -11.7% |
| all | 24 | -4.1% | -13.2% | 42% | 4% | -10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.2% | 4% | -10.0% |
| 10% | -21.5% | 0% | -18.6% |
| 15% | -29.1% | 0% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -36.1% | 0% | -33.7% |