Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
52 0x52aa…42a2 crypto 1368 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$276 (+2%) realized +$265 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate64%857W / 490L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day42.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$790now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$69
14 days−$41
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$151
crypto 32% +$85
weather 12% −$89
world 2% −$11
tech 1% +$13
politics 1% +$2
sports 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -13.7% -21.9% 66% 26% -13.1%
≤30d 337 -6.7% -15.6% 68% 34% -9.4%
≤90d 1347 -2.1% -11.5% 64% 46% -8.8%
all 1347 -2.1% -11.5% 64% 46% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 46% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 34% -17.6%
15% -27.7% 27% -25.5%
20% -34.8% 21% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$790
Realized+$265
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses857 / 490
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1347 / 1368
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day42.8
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 1347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $160 $162 +$2 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $120 $122 +$2 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 71¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? No 90¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? No 90¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 276 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $90 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $2 +$1 +41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $30 −$4 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $110 +$10 +9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $131 +$17 +13%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $30 −$5 -18%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -67%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -86%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $130 +$6 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $211 +$12 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $91 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 92¢ $1 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 94¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $3 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 96¢ $1 15h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $1 15h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 98¢ $1 21h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $3 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 31h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 31h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 31h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $26 31h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $30 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $789.62 · official $789.65 (match) · 3486 history records