Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:01:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
52 0x52aa…505e sports 276 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-1%) realized −$56 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%145W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$355
14 days+$359
30 days+$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$74
crypto 28% −$102
other 2% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +102.7% +83.4% 69% 54% +72.1%
≤30d 85 +17.4% +6.2% 62% 51% +8.2%
≤90d 155 +0.3% -9.2% 54% 47% -8.7%
all 264 -3.4% -12.6% 55% 51% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 51% -10.3%
10% -21.0% 39% -18.9%
15% -28.6% 31% -26.7%
20% -35.6% 25% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$56
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses145 / 119
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions6
Markets (closed)264 / 276
History coverage137d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$72 +142%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$106 +344%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$106 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$113 +550%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 −$8 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $40 −$31 -78%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $35 +$5 +14%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $48 −$38 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $47 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $32 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$32 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $52 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $41 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$25 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $77 +$17 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +51%
Libema Open: Tamara Korpatsch vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $32 −$28 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $37 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$14 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 55¢ $5 19h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 55¢ $5 19h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 31h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 31h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan BUY 1¢ $10 42h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Alger BUY 4¢ $5 42h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Alger BUY 1¢ $5 42h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Austria win on 2026 BUY 14¢ $26 42h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Nor BUY 40¢ $76 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 41¢ $51 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will France win on 20 BUY 4¢ $12 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 13¢ $9 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 57¢ $40 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 70¢ $39 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $35 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.35 · official $188.36 (match) · 607 history records