Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:29:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52a8…83f2 crypto 796 markets active 0h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$453 (-5%) realized −$460 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%401W / 393L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$33
14 days−$165
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$493
other 9% −$19
sports 7% +$61
weather 5% −$59
culture 3% −$112
finance 1% +$21
politics 0% +$40
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -7.6% -16.4% 56% 44% +3.5%
≤30d 89 -0.9% -10.3% 54% 51% -16.1%
≤90d 502 -12.4% -20.8% 46% 43% -25.7%
all 794 -4.8% -13.9% 51% 47% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 47% -15.5%
10% -22.1% 42% -23.5%
15% -29.7% 38% -30.9%
20% -36.6% 28% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$460
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses401 / 393
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)794 / 796
History coverage150d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 794 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Down 69¢ 68¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$25 +30%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$3 +8%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$10 -70%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$15 +139%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $13 +$7 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $37 +$13 +36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 −$9 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$4 +24%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$6 +61%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$5 +44%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$4 +44%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$4 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$3 +252%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$7 +163%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$3 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$4 +225%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$8 +95%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +101%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +36%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +16%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 69¢ $14 8m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 69¢ $14 8m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $201 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $41 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $41 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $18 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 13h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 19h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 65¢ $13 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 7d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 7d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.97 · official $234.55 (match) · 2203 history records