Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:40:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x52a7…cbd5 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$323 (+10%) realized +$331 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$324
culture 29% −$296
world 21% +$340
finance 1% −$38
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +85.2% +67.5% 100% 100% +67.5%
≤30d 3 -3.1% -12.3% 67% 33% -1.4%
≤90d 11 -53.1% -57.5% 27% 18% -9.0%
all 16 +6.7% -3.4% 44% 38% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 38% +1.3%
10% -12.7% 31% -8.4%
15% -21.1% 25% -17.2%
20% -28.8% 25% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +77% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$43 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized+$331
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage469d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 89¢ 88¢ $267 $266 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $6 $2 −$4 (-67%)
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 22 $25 +$22 +85%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $277 +$15 +6%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -97%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Apr 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900.00 by March 31? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Apr 05 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 05 $37 −$37 -100%
Will anyone say "Tariff" during the Q3 2025 Apple earnings call? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 05 $852 −$258 -30%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $640 +$358 +56%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Dec 29 $74 +$26 +35%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 29 $18 +$82 +456%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 29 $640 +$140 +22%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Sep 21 $38 +$72 +186%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Jul 31 $39 −$3 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $103 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $268 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL No 92¢ $292 14d
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $4 15d
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $5 15d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 85¢ $100 15d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 15d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 88¢ $8 15d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 88¢ $44 15d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 88¢ $30 15d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 88¢ $94 15d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 76d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $6 78d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $998 78d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $512 80d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $128 80d
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No $17 137d
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No $0 137d
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No $20 137d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes $1 150d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes $0 165d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $1 165d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 79¢ $380 246d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 246d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 246d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 246d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 246d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 246d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 246d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 246d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.73 · official $369.74 (match) · 65 history records