Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:30:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52a0…1c75 world 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate38%26W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$2
other 24% $0
politics 18% $0
sports 10% $0
economics 8% $0
crypto 6% −$3
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 25 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 58 +0.0% -9.5% 36% 0% -9.7%
all 69 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -9.6%
10% -17.7% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage332d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 88¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $61 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $31 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $35 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $26 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $84 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $55 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $30 +$2 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $33 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $23 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $30 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $3 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $22 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $23 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $47 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $73 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $76 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 09 $49 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $16 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 8h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 8h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 13h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 21h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $28 26h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $31 33h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 43h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $0 47h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $31 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $8 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $23 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 88¢ $32 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 87¢ $31 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.83 · official $30.83 (match) · 293 history records