Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x52a0…ec9d
sports · 431 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,424 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,273 · open −$151
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$936
Realized−$1,273
Unrealized−$151
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses193 / 229
Est. fees paid−$501
Open positions9
Markets (closed)422 / 431
History coverage51d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 9 History 422 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$381
7 days−$1,421
14 days−$1,245
30 days−$1,093
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 49¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Under 38¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
ITF Los Angeles: Jacob Brumm vs Marcel Latak Jacob Brumm 57¢ 50¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Aleksandar Vukic Otto Virtanen 69¢ 50¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
ITF Los Angeles: Andrew Johnson vs Spencer Johnson Andrew Johnson 56¢ 26¢ $125 $57 −$68 (-54%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 49¢ 12¢ $100 $23 −$77 (-77%)
Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 38¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Rakhimova (+1.5) Rakhimova 47¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Kamilla Rakhimova 21¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $103 +$150 +146%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $102 +$86 +84%
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Rakhimova (+1.5) Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
ITF Martos: Rafael Izquierdo Luque vs Joao Domingues Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Stefan Adrian Andreescu vs Anas Mazdrashki Jun 13 $101 +$75 +74%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $101 +$56 +55%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $102 +$70 +69%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $103 +$133 +129%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $102 +$64 +63%
ITF Wichita: Ozan Baris vs Duncan Chan Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $101 +$60 +60%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Jun 12 $101 +$74 +73%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 12 $101 +$73 +72%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Perricard (+1.5) Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $103 +$100 +98%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $51 +$74 +146%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $51 +$68 +134%
ITF Monastir: Diego Fernandez Flores vs Dominick Mosejczuk Jun 12 $101 +$78 +77%
ITF Los Angeles: Andrew Johnson vs Lucca Liu Jun 11 $101 +$55 +55%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $102 +$76 +74%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $101 +$87 +86%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $101 +$87 +86%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $102 +$98 +97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $101 +$84 +83%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi Jun 11 $103 $0 -0%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $1 +$1 +107%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Set Handicap: Linette (-1.5) vs Pohankova (+1.5) Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Tan vs Tararudee Jun 11 $205 −$34 -16%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Cattolica: Alexander Vasilev vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $101 +$65 +65%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Struff (+1.5) Jun 10 $101 +$74 +73%
ITF Wichita: Duncan Chan vs Jie Cui Jun 10 $51 +$47 +93%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% −$1,060
other 3% −$244
crypto 1% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $102 6m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 56¢ $102 34m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $103 50m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 49¢ $103 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 44¢ $103 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 56¢ $102 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 45¢ $103 1h
ITF Los Angeles: Andrew Johnson vs Spencer Johnson BUY Andrew Johnson 56¢ $26 1h
ITF Los Angeles: Andrew Johnson vs Spencer Johnson BUY Andrew Johnson 56¢ $102 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 38¢ $103 2h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton BUY Harry Wendelken 40¢ $103 6h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Robin Montgomery 53¢ $102 7h
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Rakhimova (+1.5) BUY Rakhimova 47¢ $103 7h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 21¢ $52 7h
ITF Curtea de Arges: Stefan Adrian Andreescu vs Anas Mazdrashki BUY Anas Mazdrashki 57¢ $101 11h
ITF Martos: Rafael Izquierdo Luque vs Joao Domingues BUY Rafael Izquierdo Luque 51¢ $101 11h
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan BUY Alan Magadan 61¢ $102 22h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 42¢ $103 22h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 60¢ $102 23h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 58¢ $102 23h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $102 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $101 29h
ITF Wichita: Ozan Baris vs Duncan Chan BUY Duncan Chan 59¢ $101 29h
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 62¢ $101 30h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 58¢ $102 36h
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Perricard (+1.5) BUY Perricard 62¢ $101 37h
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 37¢ $51 37h
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz BUY Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 40¢ $51 38h
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel BUY Zsombor Piros 66¢ $101 38h
ITF Monastir: Diego Fernandez Flores vs Dominick Mosejczuk BUY Dominick Mosejczuk 56¢ $101 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -12.2% -20.5% 43% 43% -20.4%
≤30d 281 -4.5% -13.6% 47% 47% -13.4%
≤90d 422 -5.5% -14.5% 46% 46% -12.9%
all 422 -5.5% -14.5% 46% 46% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 46% -12.9%
10% -22.7% 45% -21.3%
15% -30.1% 44% -28.9%
20% -37.0% 43% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $936.38 · official $936.40 (match) · 959 history records