Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:08:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x529d…13c1 sports 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 576d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$712 (-10%) realized −$712 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate55%55W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$11
14 days+$7
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$1,368
other 26% +$701
world 15% +$6
culture 1% −$40
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +4.6% -5.4% 54% 54% -4.3%
≤30d 28 +3.4% -6.4% 61% 61% -24.5%
≤90d 31 +14.6% +3.7% 61% 61% +2.4%
all 100 -10.0% -18.6% 55% 39% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 39% -18.6%
10% -26.4% 34% -26.4%
15% -33.5% 25% -33.5%
20% -40.0% 22% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$52 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

576d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$712
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses55 / 45
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage576d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $101 +$20 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$13 +86%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 +$4 +76%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 +$4 +79%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $5 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $20 +$7 +32%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 +$4 +73%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 +$4 +70%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $203 −$158 -78%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 24 $25 +$7 +29%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $10 +$8 +83%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 23 $10 +$9 +91%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 22 $35 +$13 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 22 $30 +$10 +32%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $28 +$6 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $5 +$19 +365%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 03 $203 +$189 +93%
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $1,047 +$36 +3%
The Ring - High Stakes: Ryan Garcia vs. Mario Barrios Feb 28 $51 $0 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 28 $100 +$245 +245%
Will Adele perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will Olivia Rodrigo perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will Foo Fighters perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will Morgan Wallen perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will Miley Cyrus perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 22 $5 $0 +3%
Will Jay-Z perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will Billie Eilish perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will Green Day perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 22 $5 $0 +5%
Will Teddy Swims perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 22 $5 $0 +5%
Will Doechii perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 22 $6 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will J Balvin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 22 $592 +$145 +24%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 83¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $5 42h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $5 42h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 53¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 68¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 69¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 56¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 61¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 55¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne BUY BetBoom Team 75¢ $15 12d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne BUY BetBoom Team 75¢ $5 12d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY B8 57¢ $5 12d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY GamerLegion 68¢ $5 12d
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sinners 57¢ $5 12d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Heroic 63¢ $5 12d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St BUY MIBR 79¢ $5 12d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 54¢ $5 12d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 58¢ $5 12d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P BUY Legacy 94¢ $22 21d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P SELL Team Falcons $22 21d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $76 21d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $106 22d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs BUY MOUZ 77¢ $25 22d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs BUY Legacy 54¢ $10 22d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 93¢ $19 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 208 history records