Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x529d…b897 other 1388 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (610 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$113 (+5%) realized +$126 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%138W / 497L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day610.2pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$719
other 11% +$298
weather 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (610 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 635 +64.1% +48.5% 22% 22% +52.8%
≤30d 635 +64.1% +48.5% 22% 22% +52.8%
≤90d 635 +64.1% +48.5% 22% 22% +52.8%
all 635 +64.1% +48.5% 22% 22% +52.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover610.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +48.5% 22% +52.8%
10% ← realistic here +34.3% 22% +38.2%
15% +21.3% 22% +24.8%
20% +9.4% 22% +12.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +75% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +64% · $-wt +75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +162% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×16.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.54 per $1 lost it wins $4.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$126
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses138 / 497
Open positions3
Markets (closed)635 / 1388
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day610.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 635 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 29? Yes 44¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 29? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 29? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 18m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 18m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 18m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 21m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 22m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 22m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 22m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 22m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 26m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 26m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 26m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 27m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 27m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 27m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 31m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 31m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 31m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 31m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 32m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 36m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 36m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 36m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 36m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 36m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 36m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 36m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 42m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 42m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 42m
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.36 (match) · 3500 history records