Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
52 0x529d…2626 sports 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+19%) realized +$40 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$10
world 34% +$52
other 11% −$7
crypto 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -40.3% -46.0% 43% 43% -16.3%
≤30d 10 -22.8% -30.1% 50% 50% -10.5%
≤90d 32 +8.9% -1.4% 44% 41% +12.6%
all 32 +8.9% -1.4% 44% 41% +12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 41% +12.6%
10% -10.9% 38% +1.9%
15% -19.5% 28% -8.0%
20% -27.4% 22% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)32 / 40
History coverage59d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 53¢ 94¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+78%)
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? Yes 70¢ 59¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes 42¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-86%)
O/U 0.5 Rounds Under 21¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $21 +$15 +72%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +118%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 21 $20 +$7 +36%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 07 $1 −$1 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 07 $10 +$4 +41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 02 $2 +$6 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 29 $10 +$21 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -93%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $5 +$13 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 24 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 23 $1 +$8 +835%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $9 +$3 +30%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $5 +$8 +158%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 40¢ $1 3m
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Under 21¢ $1 3m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $6 7m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $5 33m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $1 56m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 99¢ $12 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $15 40h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 10d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 13d
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 20d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 29¢ $5 24d
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) SELL Hanwha Life Esports 99¢ $27 24d
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) BUY Hanwha Life Esports 72¢ $20 24d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 50¢ $1 33d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 36d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 13¢ $1 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $14 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $19 43d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 79¢ $9 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 44d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 42¢ $2 44d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.34 · official $11.34 (match) · 61 history records