Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x529c…210e crypto 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$114 (-3%) realized −$61 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%42W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$537now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$196
7 days−$145
14 days−$145
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$709
crypto 26% −$367
sports 20% +$129
world 15% −$592
politics 3% −$115
tech 0% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -11.9% -20.3% 39% 33% -20.6%
≤30d 19 -16.6% -24.5% 37% 32% -20.6%
≤90d 19 -16.6% -24.5% 37% 32% -20.6%
all 114 +29.2% +16.9% 37% 36% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.9% 36% -12.5%
10% +5.7% 34% -20.9%
15% -4.5% 33% -28.5%
20% -13.9% 32% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$27 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$537
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses42 / 72
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions7
Markets (closed)114 / 121
History coverage136d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $300 $285 −$15 (-5%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 41¢ 36¢ $150 $134 −$16 (-11%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 56¢ $103 $99 −$4 (-4%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 6¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Iraq 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$13 +252%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$96 +188%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $384 +$178 +46%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $25 +$2 +10%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$8 -22%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $284 −$280 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $71 −$7 -10%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $94 +$50 +53%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $12 −$12 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 05 $42 −$40 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 05 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 28 $11 +$16 +142%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Feb 28 $19 −$8 -42%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $10 +$9 +91%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $256 −$256 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5 Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 25 $102 −$101 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 25 $16 −$16 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 25 $111 −$110 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 25 $60 −$60 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 25 $40 +$77 +191%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 25 $20 +$30 +148%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 50+ times during the 2026 State Feb 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 25 $64 −$64 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 25 $30 +$18 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 25 $40 +$79 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 25 $30 −$26 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Feb 25 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 24 $22 −$22 -99%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $2 +$20 +1010%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23? Feb 23 $47 +$44 +94%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers Leag Feb 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $12 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $153 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $147 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $302 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 23¢ $28 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $260 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 17¢ $21 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 4h
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $5 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $313 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 9h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $51 9h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 9h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $29 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $537.37 · official $537.38 (match) · 286 history records