Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
52 0x529b…80f0 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$777 (-5%) realized −$776 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%40W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,562now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% −$783
crypto 30% +$4
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 42 +0.0% -9.5% 95% 0% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -15.0%
10% -18.2% 0% -23.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -30.6%
20% -33.3% 0% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$392 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$2,562
Realized−$776
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses40 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage614d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,440 $1,441 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $903 $902 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $220 $219 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 03 $64 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $66 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 13 $69 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft have the second best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025? Feb 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tencent have the second best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Feb 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Feb 18 $17 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Feb 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Feb 18 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Feb 18 $73 +$1 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $4 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 13 $7 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Oct 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Oct 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in September? Oct 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 13 $65 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 04 $77 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 04 $128 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 05 $11 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? May 05 $88 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 05 $99 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? May 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 04 $594 +$1 +0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 04 $593 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $5,019 −$775 -15%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $5,028 −$9 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $903 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $220 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,440 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $32 97d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $66 97d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $49 97d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $64 97d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $53 120d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $69 120d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $49 120d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $40 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 99¢ $17 248d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $18 248d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $73 248d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $68 248d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $7 248d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $8 248d
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on October 31? BUY No 99¢ $5 248d
Will Tencent have the second best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $7 248d
Will Microsoft have the second best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $6 248d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 99¢ $49 283d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $65 283d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in September? BUY No 100¢ $21 283d
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi BUY No 100¢ $14 283d
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $20 283d
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? BUY No 100¢ $7 283d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $11 283d
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 283d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 98¢ $4 283d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $8 283d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,562.17 · official $2,562.06 (match) · 98 history records