Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5299…e1de world 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%34W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$10
politics 18% −$7
other 18% −$3
sports 11% +$8
economics 4% $0
finance 1% −$1
culture 0% −$11
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 62% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 22 -4.2% -13.3% 45% 5% -10.1%
≤90d 77 -1.3% -10.7% 39% 3% -9.7%
all 89 -4.8% -13.8% 38% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 3% -10.1%
10% -22.1% 3% -18.7%
15% -29.6% 1% -26.6%
20% -36.5% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses34 / 55
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage536d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $22 −$2 -10%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $67 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $74 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $32 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $69 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $126 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $77 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $42 −$4 -10%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $8 +$2 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $46 −$6 -13%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $40 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $40 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $54 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $2 −$1 -37%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $30 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $91 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $89 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $165 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1 $0 -6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $1 $0 +30%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $6 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $29 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 52¢ $35 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $35 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $35 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $35 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $13 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $20 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $33 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $6 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $6 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $19 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $12 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $21 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $25 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $9 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $16 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $17 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.00 (match) · 355 history records