Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
52 0x5298…b81f crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%25W / 7L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$801per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 40% −$23
other 18% −$5
tech 18% −$9
sports 12% −$3
politics 8% −$2
crypto 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 32 +0.2% -9.3% 78% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$2,044) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses25 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage253d
Avg bet$801
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? May 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? May 08 $71 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? May 08 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 22 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Feb 25 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Feb 23 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 15? Feb 23 $38 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Feb 23 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 3? Feb 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 19? Jan 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja Jan 18 $4,666 −$9 -0%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 18 $4,678 −$5 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 17? Jan 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 9? Jan 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 05 $3,200 −$3 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 05 $3,200 −$3 -0%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? Jan 05 $3,217 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 21? Dec 28 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 3? Dec 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 9? Dec 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 27? Dec 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 30? Nov 27 $51 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 30 $2,116 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on October 25? Oct 30 $30 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $2,073 −$18 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 21? Oct 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 15 $2,044 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 47d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $31 89d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $40 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $88 95d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $150 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $13 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $55 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $53 122d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 130d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 3? BUY No 100¢ $28 142d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $50 156d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $38 156d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 19? BUY No 100¢ $38 157d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja SELL No 100¢ $4,657 158d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja BUY No 100¢ $4,666 158d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 100¢ $4,673 158d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 100¢ $4,678 158d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 17? BUY No 100¢ $35 159d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 167d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $3,197 171d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $3,200 171d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $3,197 171d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $3,200 171d
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $3,214 171d
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $3,217 171d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 176d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $55 179d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $58 186d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.03 · official $63.03 (match) · 83 history records