Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:28:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x5297…7b99
world · 38 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$3,114 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,029 · open −$176
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 39 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days+$1,029
14 days+$1,029
30 days+$1,029
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $426 $581 +$155 (+36%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 75¢ 52¢ $474 $325 −$149 (-31%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes $87 $94 +$6 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 35¢ $92 $58 −$34 (-37%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 41¢ 54¢ $40 $52 +$12 (+31%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 10¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 38¢ 16¢ $103 $43 −$60 (-58%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $41 −$7 (-15%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $38 −$10 (-21%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe Mbappe 73¢ 76¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ 20¢ $9 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 69¢ 46¢ $16 $10 −$5 (-33%)
Will Marcus Rashford score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 38¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 30¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 19¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 16¢ $21 $5 −$16 (-76%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Yes 30¢ $14 $4 −$10 (-70%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 64¢ 12¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-82%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes $8 $4 −$4 (-54%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 95¢ 85¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? Jun 12 $100 −$102 -102%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? Jun 12 $24 −$182 -748%
Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the Jun 12 $0 +$9 +8148%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 12 $341 +$1,057 +310%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +822%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? Jun 12 $2,316 −$2,140 -92%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $29 −$34 -120%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 12 $0 +$37 +95031%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $0 +$6 +9712%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $12 −$2 -14%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $62 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $557 −$20 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $209 +$304 +146%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $1,608 +$130 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $3,281 +$628 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $7,210 +$212 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -84%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $362 +$8 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $7,440 +$104 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $6,534 +$985 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2,326 +$53 +2%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 99% +$2,294
finance 1% +$6
other 0% −$76
politics 0% −$2
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $11 2h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 3h
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $7 4h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $1 5h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $15 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $16 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $1 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $3 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $14 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $0 6h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $7 6h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $0 6h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $0 6h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $0 6h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $0 6h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $0 6h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $0 6h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $0 6h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $0 6h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $0 6h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $0 6h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+230.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +265.1% +230.3% 52% 32% -6.3%
≤30d 25 +265.1% +230.3% 52% 32% -6.3%
≤90d 25 +265.1% +230.3% 52% 32% -6.3%
all 25 +265.1% +230.3% 52% 32% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover513.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +230.3% 32% -6.3%
10% +198.7% 24% -15.3%
15% ← realistic here +169.9% 24% -23.5%
20% +143.4% 24% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,401.52 · official $1,401.25 (match) · 3500 history records