Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
52 0x5296…c60d sports 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$200 (-1%) realized −$206 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%29W / 39L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$27
14 days+$83
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$18
other 8% −$70
sports 6% −$102
world 0% +$2
politics 0% −$11
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +38.7% +25.5% 60% 60% -0.3%
≤30d 57 -6.0% -15.0% 40% 39% -13.2%
≤90d 62 -10.9% -19.4% 39% 37% -17.6%
all 68 -10.0% -18.5% 43% 34% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 34% -10.9%
10% -26.3% 31% -19.4%
15% -33.5% 31% -27.2%
20% -40.0% 31% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$23 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$206
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses29 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage132d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 +$11 +106%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $32 +$20 +61%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $59 +$59 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $107 −$48 -45%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $52 −$15 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $300 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 11 $154 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$24 +79%
Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $50 +$41 +83%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $20 +$1 +4%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Team Falcons PH (BO7) - MPL Phili May 30 $19 +$41 +212%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $52 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -95%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $254 −$250 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $152 +$109 +71%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $103 +$20 +20%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $46 +$37 +82%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $15 +$11 +73%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $35 +$19 +55%
Manchester City FC leading at halftime? May 24 $163 +$23 +14%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $56 +$51 +91%
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? May 24 $36 −$22 -62%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5) May 24 $10 −$1 -8%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 24 $79 −$78 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 24 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Trump say "Comrade" this week? May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "Super Bowl" this week? May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "Mamdani" this week? May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "Traitor" this week? May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "No No No" this week? May 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 May 23 $20 +$24 +119%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $15 +$30 +197%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? May 23 $10 +$27 +262%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score May 23 $25 +$16 +65%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? May 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Budget" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? May 22 $5 +$11 +214%
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5) May 22 $23 −$23 -99%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score May 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 78¢ $21 22m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 37¢ $10 31m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $52 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 61¢ $32 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $59 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $59 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $107 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 34¢ $37 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 46¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $300 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 58¢ $146 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 58¢ $154 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $55 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 8d
Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $91 8d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif SELL Tundra Esports 38¢ $21 20d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Team Falcons PH (BO7) - MPL Phili SELL Team Falcons PH 100¢ $60 20d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif BUY Tundra Esports 35¢ $20 20d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Team Falcons PH (BO7) - MPL Phili BUY Team Falcons PH 32¢ $13 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $49 20d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Team Falcons PH (BO7) - MPL Phili BUY Team Falcons PH 32¢ $6 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 20d
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 30¢ $10 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $254 20d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 44¢ $49 23d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $152 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.45 · official $116.45 (match) · 185 history records