trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Yes | 67¢ | 66¢ | $1,844 | $1,830 | −$14 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 58¢ | 24¢ | $2,086 | $877 | −$1,209 (-58%) |
| Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? | No | 77¢ | 86¢ | $168 | $187 | +$20 (+12%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $1,185 | −$1,171 | -99% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1,420 | +$81 | +6% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $2,477 | +$1,736 | +70% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Apr 12 | $6,613 | −$3,181 | -48% |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar | Apr 12 | $1,623 | −$838 | -52% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -46.6% | -51.7% | 50% | 0% | -47.4% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -7.7% | -16.5% | 67% | 33% | +2.0% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -24.6% | -31.7% | 40% | 20% | -32.4% |
| all | 5 | -24.6% | -31.7% | 40% | 20% | -32.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -31.7% | 20% | -32.4% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -38.3% | 20% | -38.9% |
| 15% | -44.2% | 20% | -44.8% |
| 20% | -49.7% | 20% | -50.2% |