Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:09:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x528d…58b5 crypto 377 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate4%16W / 361L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$13
other 28% −$10
weather 14% −$7
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
politics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 102 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 342 +0.1% -9.4% 5% 1% -9.6%
all 377 +0.1% -9.4% 4% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses16 / 361
Open positions0
Markets (closed)377 / 377
History coverage96d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 377 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 19? Jun 19 $56 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 7? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 on June 6? Jun 06 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 6? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6? Jun 06 $63 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 06 $126 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $64 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $59 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $59 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $59 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $59 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $59 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $59 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $59 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $59 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 961 history records