Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:15:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
52 0x528d…98c4 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized −$16 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 239d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$59
world 20% +$22
sports 12% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.8% -17.5% 57% 43% -13.3%
≤30d 7 -8.8% -17.5% 57% 43% -13.3%
≤90d 7 -8.8% -17.5% 57% 43% -13.3%
all 7 -8.8% -17.5% 57% 43% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 43% -13.3%
10% -25.4% 14% -21.6%
15% -32.6% 14% -29.2%
20% -39.2% 14% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$26 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$438
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage239d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $36 −$23 -64%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $101 +$9 +9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 28 $182 +$22 +12%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$9 +85%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$2 -23%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $97 +$19 +19%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $438.22 · official $438.22 (match) · 261 history records