Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:31:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x528b…1ef9 crypto 395 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,066 (+13%) realized +$3,066 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%87W / 308L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day39.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$160
7 days−$1,928
14 days−$3,010
30 days+$1,288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,075
other 0% −$3
sports 0% +$1
politics 0% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -56.6% -60.8% 17% 13% -57.7%
≤30d 352 -24.4% -31.6% 21% 18% -3.3%
≤90d 395 -25.7% -32.8% 22% 19% -4.4%
all 395 -25.7% -32.8% 22% 19% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.8% 19% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -39.2% 17% -13.5%
15% -45.1% 14% -21.9%
20% -50.5% 12% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$36 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,066
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses87 / 308
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)395 / 395
History coverage40d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day39.8
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 395 Trades
no open positions (143 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $84 −$54 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$20 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$25 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $108 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $82 −$22 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +206%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $88 −$60 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $130 −$100 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$62 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $134 −$55 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $78 −$14 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $78 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $134 +$49 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$19 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $135 −$91 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -96%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$30 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$50 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$13 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$21 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$31 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $27 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $95 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1881 history records