Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
52 0x528a…c358 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-3%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$232
politics 35% +$55
crypto 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -17.2% -25.1% 50% 38% -15.0%
≤30d 8 -17.2% -25.1% 50% 38% -15.0%
≤90d 8 -17.2% -25.1% 50% 38% -15.0%
all 8 -17.2% -25.1% 50% 38% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 38% -15.0%
10% -32.3% 25% -23.1%
15% -38.8% 0% -30.5%
20% -44.8% 0% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$136 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$14 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 28 $320 −$175 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $255 +$64 +25%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $233 +$22 +10%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 25 $579 −$347 -60%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 24 $589 −$8 -1%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $525 +$64 +12%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $649 +$204 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records