Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:33:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x5284…e64f sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$370 (+10%) realized +$212 · open +$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%26W / 33L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$130
14 days+$130
30 days+$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$191
other 23% +$266
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -1.9% -11.2% 40% 40% -5.3%
≤30d 59 +3.4% -6.4% 44% 44% -1.8%
≤90d 59 +3.4% -6.4% 44% 44% -1.8%
all 59 +3.4% -6.4% 44% 44% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 44% -1.8%
10% -15.4% 44% -11.2%
15% -23.6% 39% -19.8%
20% -31.1% 37% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$48 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized+$212
Unrealized+$158
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses26 / 33
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions4
Markets (closed)59 / 63
History coverage22d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Alexandra Eala 0¢ 38¢ $0 $76 +$76 (+0%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 0¢ 24¢ $0 $61 +$61 (+0%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Jaume Munar 0¢ 22¢ $0 $21 +$21 (+0%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin Alexei Popyrin 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $68 −$68 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $175 +$125 +72%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $166 −$166 -100%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $70 +$130 +187%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $108 +$192 +179%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $153 +$97 +64%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $112 +$81 +72%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $18 +$27 +144%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $186 +$99 +53%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $123 +$177 +144%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $122 +$85 +69%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $38 +$68 +179%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $45 +$57 +127%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $96 +$104 +108%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $98 +$102 +104%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$42 +507%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $44 +$56 +126%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $35 +$65 +187%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $42 −$42 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 05 $55 +$16 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 04 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $85 +$35 +41%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $78 +$22 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $38 +$13 +35%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Alexandra Eala 45¢ $92 31m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar BUY Jaume Munar 32¢ $32 32m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin BUY Alexei Popyrin 15¢ $31 41m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $128 1h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 21¢ $68 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $110 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 10¢ $15 25h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 36¢ $74 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $159 26h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 47¢ $92 26h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 34¢ $70 29h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $120 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $108 45h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 7¢ $14 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $57 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $108 2d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 59¢ $120 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $153 3d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 57¢ $112 3d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 55¢ $54 3d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 69¢ $132 3d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 40¢ $18 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 4d
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 26¢ $51 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $106 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $123 4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $122 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $35 4d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Terence Atmane 18¢ $28 5d
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 43¢ $45 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.13 · official $158.13 (match) · 138 history records