Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:53:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5284…6f2b crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$92 (-16%) realized −$99 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$64
14 days−$157
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$2
crypto 35% −$152
sports 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-57.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -76.7% -78.9% 20% 20% -92.2%
≤30d 14 -52.9% -57.4% 21% 21% -61.5%
≤90d 14 -52.9% -57.4% 21% 21% -61.5%
all 14 -52.9% -57.4% 21% 21% -61.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.4% 21% -61.5%
10% -61.4% 14% -65.2%
15% -65.2% 14% -68.6%
20% -68.6% 14% -71.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -83% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage10d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $133 $141 +$8 (+6%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 06 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Phil Foden score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 06 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 06 $21 +$18 +89%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $21 −$3 -15%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $32 −$18 -55%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $20 +$18 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 12m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 22h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $209 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.65 · official $160.65 (match) · 63 history records