Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
52 0x5280…5a88 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$139 (+23%) realized +$140 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$121
14 days+$203
30 days+$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$85
other 34% +$113
world 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.8% -1.5% 75% 75% +25.2%
≤30d 6 +25.2% +13.3% 67% 67% +41.2%
≤90d 8 +14.5% +3.6% 62% 62% +26.7%
all 8 +14.5% +3.6% 62% 62% +26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 62% +26.7%
10% -6.3% 62% +14.5%
15% -15.4% 62% +3.5%
20% -23.7% 38% -6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$22 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.84 per $1 lost it wins $3.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$140
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage50d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 86¢ 86¢ $87 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 60¢ 58¢ $62 $60 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $137 +$49 +36%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $99 +$37 +38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $71 +$44 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 +$88 +216%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $48 +$31 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $87 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 60¢ $63 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $186 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 73¢ $137 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 100¢ $137 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 72¢ $99 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $71 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $129 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $41 8d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 41d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $48 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.96 · official $147.96 (match) · 16 history records