Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:15:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x527e…0935 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$569 (+14%) realized +$569 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate57%25W / 19L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$473
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +32.1% +19.6% 64% 36% -6.9%
≤30d 14 +32.1% +19.6% 64% 36% -6.9%
≤90d 43 +5.3% -4.8% 58% 37% +1.4%
all 44 +2.9% -6.9% 57% 36% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 36% +1.3%
10% -15.8% 30% -8.4%
15% -24.0% 27% -17.2%
20% -31.4% 23% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$20 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$569
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses25 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage296d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $511 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $416 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $306 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $53 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$6 +545%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 16 $5 +$7 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 16 $26 +$54 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 16 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 16 $105 +$62 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 16 $208 +$371 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 16 $35 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 16 $24 +$33 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 16 $79 −$76 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 16 $95 +$96 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 16 $210 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 16 $208 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 16 $209 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 16 $210 +$74 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 15 $28 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 15 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 15 $52 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 15 $132 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 15 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $501 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $405 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $301 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records