Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5278…5306 weather 498 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 122d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,763 (+11%) realized +$1,766 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%186W / 308L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 123d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 52% −$1,082
crypto 43% −$829
other 4% +$282
sports 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -30.8% -37.4% 28% 28% -1.3%
≤30d 160 -0.8% -10.3% 38% 38% +0.0%
≤90d 470 -6.9% -15.7% 38% 37% -17.8%
all 494 -6.6% -15.5% 38% 36% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 36% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 36% -26.6%
15% -31.0% 35% -33.7%
20% -37.7% 32% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$20 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$1,766
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses186 / 308
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)494 / 498
History coverage123d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 494 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$121 +119%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$14 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$11 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$30 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$11 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$12 +116%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $404 +$184 +46%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$17 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$11 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$15 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$17 +169%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$32 +305%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$23 +219%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 10? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 22? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.79 · official $221.79 (match) · 3500 history records