Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:05:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x5276…800d
sports · 458 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$689 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$707 · open −$131
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$54
Realized−$707
Unrealized−$131
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses122 / 303
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions24
Markets (closed)425 / 458
History coverage281d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 24 History 425 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$141
14 days+$196
30 days−$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+20%)
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-28%)
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $18 $5 −$13 (-71%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+71%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka West Indies 1¢ 0¢ $26 $1 −$25 (-96%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Yes 67¢ 0¢ $68 $1 −$67 (-99%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-97%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $68 +$50 +74%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 −$10 -84%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$5 -53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$127 +596%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $20 +$11 +55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$11 +55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $22 +$13 +60%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $43 +$7 +17%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -18%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $446 +$17 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $84 +$37 +44%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $8 −$2 -25%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $19 −$5 -26%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -17%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 $0 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 $0 -16%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -13%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +246%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $24 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $48 −$32 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 −$11 -74%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $2 +$10 +629%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 64% −$551
crypto 14% −$52
other 8% −$229
tech 4% −$31
world 3% +$70
weather 3% −$39
finance 2% −$14
culture 0% +$3
politics 0% +$7
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 9m
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 16m
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 16m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 20m
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 71¢ $44 21m
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 22m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 27m
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 29m
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 38m
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 44m
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 45m
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 45m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 50m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 51m
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 67¢ $68 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 1h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 0¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 4¢ $4 2h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 18¢ $5 2h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 36¢ $10 2h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 33¢ $5 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 13h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 13h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 13h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $16 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -23.6% -30.9% 21% 19% -0.7%
≤30d 239 -25.6% -32.7% 26% 21% -15.6%
≤90d 376 -33.2% -39.6% 27% 18% -16.6%
all 425 -31.2% -37.7% 29% 19% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 19% -16.2%
10% -43.7% 15% -24.2%
15% -49.1% 13% -31.5%
20% -54.1% 11% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.20 · official $54.20 (match) · 2428 history records